Friday, May 21, 2010

1134 : Time to have another buffet

Too many changes in my life forced me to take a backseat (with respect to Bombay markets). I have been reading again (and my fingers are itching!!). My bet is 13k sensex will be breached by 1st October.

My rationale:

1. I think the US politicians are behaving like duffers. I don’t care whether Goldman screwed around the market or not, whyTF make a public spectacle of what is essentially a “government versus a private firm”. By these histrionics, they are freaking out an “already on the edge” market. If Goldman is guilty, punish them, take a billion out of their capital – but for heaven’s sake – don’t play with our already frayed nerves.
2. Demand is not really back in yet. How many people are back to big ticket spending?
3. Fundamentals have not changed. The Q-on-Q results look good, because last year’s Q’s were terrible. In effect, we are using a wrong baseline.
4. The European liquidity crisis seems underestimated by most people not close to it.
5. The dollar rally. Money will move out of emerging market.

I re-iterate before, 1st October we shall see 13k at least once.

Get your cash-chest ready. Its time to play, and this time, the bets are not off, but they are ON !!

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